The folks over at RealClearPolitcs have recently updated their electoral map, and in a not-so-surprising turn of events, it is showing the POTUS race tightening up considerably. Throughout most of the Summer and early Fall, it was looking very likely that Obama, despite having a ton of bad stuff going on (bad economy, bad gas prices, bad track record, erosion of base, etc), was probably going to get reelected probably for no other reason than Romney being such the weak candidate that he is.
But in light of the 9/11 attack in Libya and Romney's complete annihilation of the PrezBO in the first debate, it's really looking like the "Stormin' Morman" just might win this thing. Possibly the biggest thing to note is how two states, Michigan and Pennsylvania, at one time thought to be very safe Obama territory, are now considered toss-ups. Wisconsin, while not as big a surprise as the aforementioned states, is also very important to keep in mind. If Romney takes those three, and holds Florida, he would probably win regardless of any of the other toss-ups.
In my opinion, I see Romney safely picking up Florida, North Carolina, and Virginia which puts him at 237 electoral votes to Obama's 201 with 125 undetermined. Throw in Wisconsin, Ohio, and either Michigan or Pennsylvania, and Romney wins.With all of this said, there are obviously a ton of scenarios that could play out. What if, as one scenario goes, it comes down to New Mexico? A state where Obama is winning fairly easily, but a state where the Libertarian candidate, Gary Johnson, is polling right at the margin of difference between Obama and Romney. Wouldn't that be a hell of a note? Of course, as most of us know, there's nothing to it - A vote for Johnson is a vote for Johnson; however, I'm sure a lot of GOPers would love to blame us childish Libertarians for throwing the election. I'd absolutely love that!
Regardless, the GOP needs to work on taking over the Senate (very possible), maintaining the House (completely probable), and then start to seriously think about their strategy. Because, honestly, it's not a very good one. And that's without even getting into their disdain and maltreatment of the Ron Paul/Libertarian/Freedom wing of the party...